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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.