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Just 48 hours remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|